With the nominees for the 89th Oscars finally revealed, today FiveThirtyEight debuts its annual Oscar Tracker, which will forecast this year’s winners in the top eight categories. The presentation will air live on ABC on Sunday, Feb. 26, at 7 p.m. ET.
FiveThirtyEight’s Oscars model analyzes the state of the race by evaluating nominees’ performances at other award ceremonies preceding the Oscars and comparing how these shows have historically predicted the Academy Awards winners. The eight categories include: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor, Best Supporting Actress and for the first time, Best Animated Feature Film and Best Documentary Feature.
In addition to publishing a variety of content exploring all facets of the race, chief culture writer Walter Hickey and select FiveThirtyEight reporters will host several chats throughout the month, where they will discuss some of this year’s trends and what to expect in the five weeks leading up Academy Awards.
Some of the articles to be published on the site include:
- “Who’s Trying To Buy An Oscar Nomination?” – This three-part series, which launched on Jan. 18, explores the movies advertising the most in two entertainment trade magazines – Hollywood Reporter and Variety — during the weeks leading up to the ceremony.
- “Who Got Snubbed or Earned A Surprise Nomination?” – FiveThirtyEight’s Walt Hickey breaks down this year’s biggest surprises in the Academy Award nominations.
- “The Current State of The Race, Given Critic Awards” – Where Oscars tracking stands now that the official contenders are announced.
- “How Best Picture Voting Works” – A look at the voting algorithm used by the Academy to establish the consensus pick for Best Picture.
FiveThirtyEight, which launched as an ESPN entity in 2014, is a data journalism organization delivering compelling stories across the verticals of politics, economy, science, life and sports. The site was founded by award-winning author and statistician Nate Silver. Since its debut at ESPN, FiveThirtyEight has built a team with a broad set of skills and experiences in order to apply statistical analysis, data visualization, and data-literate reporting to topics in the news and in everyday life.